Pokémon Research

Pokémon pack prices and chase odds: every English set, 1999–2026

Pack prices, exact-card odds, and a comparison for your budget.

Updated October 9, 2026 · English physical releases through October 3, 2026 · CollectAIO Research

Chance for your budget: packs versus singles

Compare a pack budget with the single’s dated guide value. Each percentage is the estimated chance of the exact named card. Pack prices are market snapshots, not retail recommendations or a measure of profit. Enter the price you can actually pay below each pack; it applies to every target using that exact pack variant.

Open the detailed odds calculator · Browse all 150 releases

Showing 12 of 51 exact targets and pack variants, ordered by modeled chance with $100.00. Order updates when you finish editing a price.

Modeled chance of one exact card within the selected budget, using whole compatible packs, with price evidence and raw single guide values. Rankings use point estimates, not guaranteed results or expected resale value.
30th Celebration: Greninja ex SIR 148/128Greninja ex SIR 148/12830th Celebration · Holofoil · raw30th Celebration Pack

Your budget buys

9 whole packs · $98.37

$1.63 unspent · $10.93 per pack

Guide: $10.93 · TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08

Pack price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Chance of this exact card

~4.32%

2.23%–6.38% sensitivity
Using the published odds interval

Opening study · source
Sample and assumptions

More than 3,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card. RGB Rare Mew: none observed in the sample; its chance remains unquantified.

Raw single value guide

$111.00

eBay sold guide · 2026-09-16

Single value evidence

Older price evidence. Sold comps last checked 2026-09-16.

Check exact single and condition
30th Celebration: Pikachu ex SIR 149/128Pikachu ex SIR 149/12830th Celebration · Holofoil · raw30th Celebration Pack

Your budget buys

9 whole packs · $98.37

$1.63 unspent · $10.93 per pack

Guide: $10.93 · TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08

Pack price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Chance of this exact card

~4.32%

2.23%–6.38% sensitivity
Using the published odds interval

Opening study · source
Sample and assumptions

More than 3,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card. RGB Rare Mew: none observed in the sample; its chance remains unquantified.

Raw single value guide

$140.99

eBay sold guide · 2026-10-07

Single value evidence

Older price evidence. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-09.

Check exact single and condition
30th Celebration: Pikachu ex SIR 150/128Pikachu ex SIR 150/12830th Celebration · Holofoil · raw30th Celebration Pack

Your budget buys

9 whole packs · $98.37

$1.63 unspent · $10.93 per pack

Guide: $10.93 · TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08

Pack price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Chance of this exact card

~4.32%

2.23%–6.38% sensitivity
Using the published odds interval

Opening study · source
Sample and assumptions

More than 3,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card. RGB Rare Mew: none observed in the sample; its chance remains unquantified.

Raw single value guide

$467.67

eBay sold guide · 2026-09-15

Single value evidence

Older price evidence. Sold comps last checked 2026-09-16.

Check exact single and condition
Pitch Black: Mega Darkrai ex SIR 116/84Mega Darkrai ex SIR 116/84Pitch Black · Holofoil · rawME05: Pitch Black Pitch Black Booster Pack

Your budget buys

18 whole packs · $99.90

$0.10 unspent · $5.55 per pack

Guide: $5.55 · TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08

Pack price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Chance of this exact card

~3.71%

1.25%–6.12% sensitivity
Using the published odds interval

Opening study · source
Sample and assumptions

More than 4,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Raw single value guide

$285.00

eBay sold guide · Source date unavailable

Single value evidence

Guide updated 2026-11-07; underlying price source date unavailable. Sold comps last checked 2026-08-02.

Check exact single and condition
Obsidian Flames: Charizard ex SIR 223/197Charizard ex SIR 223/197Obsidian Flames · Holofoil · rawSV03: Obsidian Flames Obsidian Flames Booster Pack

Your budget buys

7 whole packs · $88.48

$11.52 unspent · $12.64 per pack

Guide: $12.64 · TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08

Pack price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-06.

Chance of this exact card

~3.58%

2.56%–4.60% sensitivity
Using the published odds interval

Opening study · source
Sample and assumptions

More than 8,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Raw single value guide

$95.41

eBay sold guide · 2026-10-18

Single value evidence

Older price evidence. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-19.

Check exact single and condition
Obsidian Flames: Eiscue ex SIR 222/197Eiscue ex SIR 222/197Obsidian Flames · Holofoil · rawSV03: Obsidian Flames Obsidian Flames Booster Pack

Your budget buys

7 whole packs · $88.48

$11.52 unspent · $12.64 per pack

Guide: $12.64 · TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08

Pack price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-06.

Chance of this exact card

~3.58%

2.56%–4.60% sensitivity
Using the published odds interval

Opening study · source
Sample and assumptions

More than 8,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Raw single value guide

$6.07

TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08

Single value evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Check exact single and condition
Obsidian Flames: Pidgeot ex SIR 225/197Pidgeot ex SIR 225/197Obsidian Flames · Holofoil · rawSV03: Obsidian Flames Obsidian Flames Booster Pack

Your budget buys

7 whole packs · $88.48

$11.52 unspent · $12.64 per pack

Guide: $12.64 · TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08

Pack price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-06.

Chance of this exact card

~3.58%

2.56%–4.60% sensitivity
Using the published odds interval

Opening study · source
Sample and assumptions

More than 8,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Raw single value guide

$15.06

TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08

Single value evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Check exact single and condition
Perfect Order: Mega Zygarde ex SIR 120/88Mega Zygarde ex SIR 120/88Perfect Order · Holofoil · rawME03: Perfect Order Perfect Order Booster Pack

Your budget buys

17 whole packs · $98.09

$1.91 unspent · $5.77 per pack

Guide: $5.77 · TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08

Pack price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Chance of this exact card

~3.51%

1.02%–5.95% sensitivity
Using the published odds interval

Opening study · source
Sample and assumptions

More than 3,500 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Raw single value guide

$39.74

TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08

Single value evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Check exact single and condition
Scarlet & Violet: Gardevoir ex SIR 245/198Gardevoir ex SIR 245/198Scarlet & Violet · Holofoil · rawSV01: Scarlet & Violet Base Set Scarlet & Violet Booster Pack

Your budget buys

11 whole packs · $97.24

$2.76 unspent · $8.84 per pack

Guide: $8.84 · TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08

Pack price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Chance of this exact card

~3.36%

2.07%–4.63% sensitivity
Using the published odds interval

Opening study · source
Sample and assumptions

More than 8,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Raw single value guide

$60.05

TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08

Single value evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Check exact single and condition
Scarlet & Violet: Miraidon ex SIR 244/198Miraidon ex SIR 244/198Scarlet & Violet · Holofoil · rawSV01: Scarlet & Violet Base Set Scarlet & Violet Booster Pack

Your budget buys

11 whole packs · $97.24

$2.76 unspent · $8.84 per pack

Guide: $8.84 · TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08

Pack price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Chance of this exact card

~3.36%

2.07%–4.63% sensitivity
Using the published odds interval

Opening study · source
Sample and assumptions

More than 8,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Raw single value guide

$18.30

TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08

Single value evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Check exact single and condition
Scarlet & Violet: Miriam SIR 251/198Miriam SIR 251/198Scarlet & Violet · Holofoil · rawSV01: Scarlet & Violet Base Set Scarlet & Violet Booster Pack

Your budget buys

11 whole packs · $97.24

$2.76 unspent · $8.84 per pack

Guide: $8.84 · TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08

Pack price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Chance of this exact card

~3.36%

2.07%–4.63% sensitivity
Using the published odds interval

Opening study · source
Sample and assumptions

More than 8,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Raw single value guide

$17.08

TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08

Single value evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Check exact single and condition
Chaos Rising: Mega Greninja ex SIR 116/86Mega Greninja ex SIR 116/86Chaos Rising · Holofoil · rawME04: Chaos Rising Chaos Rising Booster Pack

Your budget buys

17 whole packs · $98.77

$1.23 unspent · $5.81 per pack

Guide: $5.81 · TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08

Pack price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Chance of this exact card

~3.35%

1.85%–4.82% sensitivity
Using the published odds interval

Opening study · source
Sample and assumptions

More than 8,500 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Raw single value guide

$290.48

eBay sold guide · 2026-10-08

Single value evidence

Older price evidence. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-10.

Check exact single and condition

Selected cards with sourced odds; these are not necessarily the most valuable cards in each set. RGB Rare Mew’s odds for 30th Celebration remain unquantified.

Whole packs are counted within your budget, rounded to cents. Chance = 1 − (1 − p)packs, assuming independent eligible packs and constant odds. Rankings use point estimates; overlapping uncertainty can change the order. Only priced packs compatible with the linked card’s printing are ranked. Single values are dated catalog guides, not available purchase offers; check condition and availability on the item page. Sold guides may include reported shipping. Your price should include any per-pack shipping you pay. Checkout taxes and extra order fees are not separately added. No profit or full-pack expected-value calculation is implied.

Download the saved $100 guide-price comparison (CSV; excludes your edits)

English Pokémon pack directory

129 expansions and special sets, plus 21 promotional releases. Each named chase has an image, an exact raw-card link, and a sourced estimate. Pack prices follow current catalog guides and show their evidence dates. Check the priced pack’s exact edition.

150 of 150 releases · English · Catalog identities checked: October 7, 2026 · Odds reviewed: October 5, 2026

Chase images show representative card artwork. The linked raw variant specifies the edition and foil finish; stock scans may show another printing.

English Pokémon releases with representative pack images, dated pack prices, each named chase card's image and exact raw variant link, estimated per-pack odds, source types, samples, and limitations. Model ranges are not confidence intervals.
30th Celebration English pack, representative wrapper artwork
30th Celebration
2026-09 · Special
Mega Evolution

Market pack price

$10.93
30th Celebration Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Odds for each named card

~0.49% per pack
About 1 in 205 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.24 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 3,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card. RGB Rare Mew: none observed in the sample; its chance remains unquantified.

Pitch Black English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Pitch Black
2026-07 · Expansion
Mega Evolution

Market pack price

$5.55
ME05: Pitch Black Pitch Black Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Odds for each named card

~0.21% per pack
About 1 in 480 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.14 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 4,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Chaos Rising English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Chaos Rising
2026-05 · Expansion
Mega Evolution

Market pack price

$5.81
ME04: Chaos Rising Chaos Rising Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Odds for each named card

~0.20% per pack
About 1 in 496 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.09 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 8,500 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Perfect Order English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Perfect Order
2026-03 · Expansion
Mega Evolution

Market pack price

$5.77
ME03: Perfect Order Perfect Order Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Odds for each named card

~0.21% per pack
About 1 in 487 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.15 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 3,500 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Ascended Heroes English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Ascended Heroes
2026-01 · Special
Mega Evolution

Market pack price

$10.45
ME: Ascended Heroes Ascended Heroes Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Odds for each named card

~0.07% per pack
About 1 in 1,533 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.11 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 2,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Phantasmal Flames English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Phantasmal Flames
2025-11 · Expansion
Mega Evolution

Market pack price

$11.83
ME02: Phantasmal Flames Phantasmal Flames Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Odds for each named card

~0.25% per pack
About 1 in 400 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.14 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 5,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Mega Evolution English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Mega Evolution
2025-09 · Expansion
Mega Evolution

Market pack price

$9.51
ME01: Mega Evolution Mega Evolution Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Odds for each named card

~0.10% per pack
About 1 in 1,008 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.09 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 5,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

White Flare English pack, representative wrapper artwork
White Flare
2025-07 · Special
Scarlet & Violet

Market pack price

$13.33
SV: White Flare White Flare Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Odds for each named card

~0.18% per pack
About 1 in 560 · each named target
Pooled model · source
Sample and assumptions

More than 350 English packs. TCGplayer pooled 350+ Black Bolt and 350+ White Flare packs. We divide the pooled 1.25% SIR rate by the seven SIRs eligible in this set, assuming both sets share that rate. This is a conditional model, not a measured set-specific rate. BWR: none observed; no numeric rate established.

Black Bolt English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Black Bolt
2025-07 · Special
Scarlet & Violet

Market pack price

$13.75
SV: Black Bolt Black Bolt Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Odds for each named card

~0.18% per pack
About 1 in 560 · each named target
Pooled model · source
Sample and assumptions

More than 350 English packs. TCGplayer pooled 350+ Black Bolt and 350+ White Flare packs. We divide the pooled 1.25% SIR rate by the seven SIRs eligible in this set, assuming both sets share that rate. This is a conditional model, not a measured set-specific rate. BWR: none observed; no numeric rate established.

Destined Rivals English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Destined Rivals
2025-05 · Expansion
Scarlet & Violet

Market pack price

$8.41
SV10: Destined Rivals Destined Rivals Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Odds for each named card

~0.10% per pack
About 1 in 1,033 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.07 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 8,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Journey Together English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Journey Together
2025-03 · Expansion
Scarlet & Violet

Market pack price

$6.22
SV09: Journey Together Journey Together Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Odds for each named card

~0.19% per pack
About 1 in 518 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.09 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 8,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Prismatic Evolutions English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Prismatic Evolutions
2025-01 · Special
Scarlet & Violet

Market pack price

$13.52
SV: Prismatic Evolutions Prismatic Evolutions Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-18.

Odds for each named card

~0.07% per pack
About 1 in 1,440 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.15 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 1,200 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card. Source includes multi-SIR demigod packs; its rarity count is not identical to the probability of a pack containing any SIR. The small sample produces an interval wider than the estimate.

McDonald's Dragon Discovery English pack, representative wrapper artwork
McDonald's Dragon Discovery (2024 collection)
2024-12 · Promotional
McDonald's Collection

Market pack price

$8.85
McDonald's Dragon Discovery Pack (2024 collection)
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Odds for each named card

Unknown · exact regional distribution and comparable opening evidence not verified
Surging Sparks English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Surging Sparks
2024-11 · Expansion
Scarlet & Violet

Market pack price

$8.70
SV08: Surging Sparks Surging Sparks Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Odds for each named card

~0.10% per pack
About 1 in 960 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.07 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 8,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Stellar Crown English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Stellar Crown
2024-09 · Expansion
Scarlet & Violet

Market pack price

$10.70
SV07: Stellar Crown Stellar Crown Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Odds for each named card

~0.19% per pack
About 1 in 540 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.09 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 8,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Shrouded Fable English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Shrouded Fable
2024-08 · Special
Scarlet & Violet

Market pack price

$12.53
SV: Shrouded Fable Shrouded Fable Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-08.

Odds for each named card

~0.31% per pack
About 1 in 318 · each named target
Opening model · source
Sample and assumptions

2,354 English packs; breaker data collected by Mark van Zee. Original collector records 37 SIRs in 2,354 breaker packs. Divided across five eligible SIR cards assuming equal population; not a separate Cassiopeia count. Breaker selection and English product consistency are not independently audited; no per-card confidence interval.

Twilight Masquerade English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Twilight Masquerade
2024-05 · Expansion
Scarlet & Violet

Market pack price

$9.26
SV06: Twilight Masquerade Twilight Masquerade Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.11% per pack
About 1 in 941 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.07 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 8,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Temporal Forces English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Temporal Forces
2024-03 · Expansion
Scarlet & Violet

Market pack price

$10.54
SV05: Temporal Forces Temporal Forces Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.12% per pack
About 1 in 855 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.07 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 8,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Paldean Fates English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Paldean Fates
2024-01 · Special
Scarlet & Violet

Market pack price

$24.20
SV: Paldean Fates Paldean Fates Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.22% per pack
About 1 in 465 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.21 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 1,500 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Paradox Rift English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Paradox Rift
2023-11 · Expansion
Scarlet & Violet

Market pack price

$8.72
SV04: Paradox Rift Paradox Rift Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.14% per pack
About 1 in 712 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.08 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 8,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

151 English pack, representative wrapper artwork
151
2023-09 · Special
Scarlet & Violet

Market pack price

$26.49
SV: Scarlet & Violet 151 151 Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.44% per pack
About 1 in 225 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.31 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 1,500 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Obsidian Flames English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Obsidian Flames
2023-08 · Expansion
Scarlet & Violet

Market pack price

$12.64
SV03: Obsidian Flames Obsidian Flames Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-06.

Odds for each named card

~0.52% per pack
About 1 in 192 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.15 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 8,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

McDonald's Collection 2023 English pack, representative wrapper artwork
McDonald's Collection 2023
2023-08 · Promotional
McDonald's Collection

Market pack price

$7.20
McDonald's Promos 2023 McDonald's 2023 Match & Battle Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

Unknown · exact regional distribution and comparable opening evidence not verified
Paldea Evolved English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Paldea Evolved
2023-06 · Expansion
Scarlet & Violet

Market pack price

$15.86
SV02: Paldea Evolved Paldea Evolved Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.21% per pack
About 1 in 473 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.10 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 8,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Scarlet & Violet English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Scarlet & Violet
2023-03 · Expansion
Scarlet & Violet

Market pack price

$8.84
SV01: Scarlet & Violet Base Set Scarlet & Violet Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.31% per pack
About 1 in 318 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.12 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 8,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Crown Zenith English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Crown Zenith
2023-01 · Special
Sword & Shield

Market pack price

$25.32
Crown Zenith Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.75% per pack
About 1 in 133 · each named target
Opening study · source
Sample and assumptions

More than 1,900 English packs. Published per-card estimate; the source uses rarity-pool averages rather than a separate observed count for every named target.

Silver Tempest English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Silver Tempest
2022-11 · Expansion
Sword & Shield

Market pack price

$15.01
SWSH12: Silver Tempest Silver Tempest Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.15% per pack
About 1 in 674 · each named target
Opening study · source
Sample and assumptions

More than 8,000 English packs. Published per-card estimate; the source uses rarity-pool averages rather than a separate observed count for every named target.

Lost Origin English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Lost Origin
2022-09 · Expansion
Sword & Shield

Market pack price

$16.93
SWSH11: Lost Origin Lost Origin Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.12% per pack
About 1 in 804 · each named target
Opening study · source
Sample and assumptions

More than 8,000 English packs. Published per-card estimate; the source uses rarity-pool averages rather than a separate observed count for every named target.

McDonald's Collection 2022 English pack, representative wrapper artwork
McDonald's Collection 2022
2022-08 · Promotional
McDonald's Collection

Market pack price

$8.65
McDonald's Promos 2022 McDonald's 2022 Match & Battle Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

Unknown · exact regional distribution and comparable opening evidence not verified
Pokémon GO English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Pokémon GO
2022-07 · Special
Sword & Shield

Market pack price

$15.88
Pokemon GO Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.81% per pack
About 1 in 124 · each named target
Observed sample · source
Sample and assumptions

371 English packs. Observed three rainbow Mewtwo VSTAR in 371 packs. Small mixed-product sample; no confidence interval supplied. Excludes gold and regular VSTAR versions.

Astral Radiance English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Astral Radiance
2022-05 · Expansion
Sword & Shield

Market pack price

$10.55
SWSH10: Astral Radiance Astral Radiance Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-23.

Odds for each named card

~0.12% per pack
About 1 in 810 · each named target
Opening study · source
Sample and assumptions

8,000 English packs. Published per-card estimate; the source uses rarity-pool averages rather than a separate observed count for every named target.

Brilliant Stars English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Brilliant Stars
2022-02 · Expansion
Sword & Shield

Market pack price

$14.61
SWSH09: Brilliant Stars Brilliant Stars Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.10% per pack
About 1 in 1,004 · each named target
Observed sample · source
Sample and assumptions

1,004 English packs. Observed one copy of alternate-art Charizard V in 1,004 packs. Small sample; no confidence interval supplied. Other studies may produce different estimates.

Fusion Strike English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Fusion Strike
2021-11 · Expansion
Sword & Shield

Market pack price

$19.19
SWSH08: Fusion Strike Fusion Strike Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.05% per pack
About 1 in 2,160 · each named target
Opening study · source
Sample and assumptions

More than 4,000 English packs. TCGplayer’s November 12, 2021 chart reports Gengar VMAX specifically at 1 in 2,160. This differs from its pooled alternate-art VMAX rate; no confidence interval is supplied.

Celebrations English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Celebrations
2021-10 · Special
Sword & Shield

Market pack price

$27.32
Celebrations Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.37% per pack
About 1 in 271 · each named target
Observed sample · source
Sample and assumptions

541 English packs. Observed two gold Mew in 541 four-card Celebrations packs, compiled by DigitalTQ from its pulls and other sources. Small mixed-source sample; no confidence interval supplied.

Evolving Skies English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Evolving Skies
2021-08 · Expansion
Sword & Shield

Market pack price

$42.84
SWSH07: Evolving Skies Evolving Skies Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.05% per pack
About 1 in 1,994 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.05 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

More than 8,000 English packs. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card.

Chilling Reign English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Chilling Reign
2021-06 · Expansion
Sword & Shield

Market pack price

$11.97
SWSH06: Chilling Reign Chilling Reign Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.07% per pack
About 1 in 1,362 · each named target
Opening model · source
Sample and assumptions

5,000 English packs; 90% booster boxes. Cardzard reports any alternate-art VMAX at 1 in 454. Divided across three eligible alt-art VMAX under equal population; not a separate Blaziken count. First release-wave sample.

Battle Styles English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Battle Styles
2021-03 · Expansion
Sword & Shield

Market pack price

$9.77
SWSH05: Battle Styles Battle Styles Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.12% per pack
About 1 in 803 · each named target
Opening study · source
Sample and assumptions

1,405 English packs. Cardzard published approximately 1 in 803 for this exact card. No published confidence interval; an estimate from a small initial-release sample.

Shining Fates English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Shining Fates
2021-02 · Special
Sword & Shield

Market pack price

$18.27
Shining Fates Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-23.

Odds for each named card

~0.37% per pack
About 1 in 271 · each named target
Opening study · source
Sample and assumptions

1,087 English packs. Cardzard published approximately 1 in 271 for this exact card in its initial sample. No published confidence interval; first-wave results may differ from later print runs.

McDonald's Collection 2021 English pack, representative wrapper artwork
McDonald's Collection 2021
2021-02 · Promotional
McDonald's Collection

Market pack price

$8.29
McDonald's 25th Anniversary Promos McDonald's 25th Anniversary Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

Unknown · exact regional distribution and comparable opening evidence not verified
Vivid Voltage English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Vivid Voltage
2020-11 · Expansion
Sword & Shield

Market pack price

$10.17
SWSH04: Vivid Voltage Vivid Voltage Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.16% per pack
About 1 in 630 · each named target
Observed sample · source
Sample and assumptions

630 English packs. One rainbow Pikachu VMAX recorded in 630 packs, compiled from DigitalTQ and third-party pulls. Small mixed-source sample; no published confidence interval. This is a sample frequency, not an established print-run probability.

Champion's Path English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Champion's Path
2020-09 · Special
Sword & Shield

Market pack price

$20.04
Champion's Path Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.44% per pack
About 1 in 228 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.23 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

3,192 English packs. The source measures Shiny Charizard V as a one-card category. Published 95% interval ±0.23 percentage points.

Darkness Ablaze English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Darkness Ablaze
2020-08 · Expansion
Sword & Shield

Market pack price

$10.33
SWSH03: Darkness Ablaze Darkness Ablaze Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.55% per pack
About 1 in 182 · each named target
Opening model · source
Sample and assumptions

5,040 English packs. Measured regular VMAX rate 3.85%, divided across seven eligible VMAX cards under equal population; not a direct Charizard count. Category interval ±0.53 points is not a per-card confidence interval.

Rebel Clash English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Rebel Clash
2020-05 · Expansion
Sword & Shield

Market pack price

$11.45
SWSH02: Rebel Clash Rebel Clash Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.17% per pack
About 1 in 606 · each named target
Opening model · source
Sample and assumptions

2,736 English packs. Measured gold Pokémon rate 0.33%, divided across Frosmoth and Galarian Perrserker assuming equal population. Category interval ±0.21 points is not a per-card confidence interval.

Sword & Shield English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Sword & Shield
2020-02 · Expansion
Sword & Shield

Market pack price

$12.25
SWSH01: Sword & Shield Base Set Sword & Shield Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.28–0.33% per pack
About 1 in 300–360 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.055555556 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 5–6 copies / 100 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. Marnie full art only; the rainbow Marnie uses a different sheet.

Cosmic Eclipse English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Cosmic Eclipse
2019-11 · Expansion
Sun & Moon

Market pack price

$72.23
SM - Cosmic Eclipse Cosmic Eclipse Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.83–0.91% per pack
About 1 in 110–121 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.1 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 10–11 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. Character rare Pikachu comes from the special/reverse slot, not the rainbow GX class.

McDonald's Collection 2019 promotional card; wrapper not pictured
McDonald's Collection 2019
2019-10 · Promotional
McDonald's Collection
Promo card shown; wrapper not pictured

Market pack price

Individual card promotion; a comparable sealed booster pack is not verified.

Odds for each named card

Unknown · exact regional distribution and comparable opening evidence not verified
Hidden Fates English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Hidden Fates
2019-08 · Special
Sun & Moon

Market pack price

$46.32
Hidden Fates Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.29% per pack
About 1 in 343 · each named target
Opening model · source
Sample and assumptions

1,580 English packs. Measured Shiny GX category rate 10.19%, divided across 35 eligible Shiny GX cards under equal population. This is a derived per-card model, not a separate Charizard count. Category interval ±1.49 points is not a per-card confidence interval.

Unified Minds English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Unified Minds
2019-08 · Expansion
Sun & Moon

Market pack price

$81.39
SM - Unified Minds Unified Minds Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.10% per pack
About 1 in 1,000 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.033333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 3 copies / 100 sheet positions.

Unbroken Bonds English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Unbroken Bonds
2019-05 · Expansion
Sun & Moon

Market pack price

$67.09
SM - Unbroken Bonds Unbroken Bonds Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.15–0.18% per pack
About 1 in 545–655 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.030555556 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 5–6 copies / 100 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Detective Pikachu English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Detective Pikachu
2019-03 · Special
Sun & Moon

Market pack price

$24.41
Detective Pikachu Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~9.92–10.74% per pack
About 1 in 9–10 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 1 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 12–13 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. Four-card Detective Pikachu pack: three holo commons plus one holo rare, not a standard expansion pack.

Team Up English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Team Up
2019-01 · Expansion
Sun & Moon

Market pack price

$326.85
SM - Team Up Team Up Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-23.

Odds for each named card

~0.17–0.20% per pack
About 1 in 500–571 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.025 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 7–8 copies / 100 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. Source models alternative artworks on the full-art Pokémon sheet; exact FP7/FP8 allocation is unresolved.

Lost Thunder English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Lost Thunder
2018-11 · Expansion
Sun & Moon

Market pack price

$55.97
SM - Lost Thunder Lost Thunder Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.11% per pack
About 1 in 923 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.036111111 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 3 copies / 100 sheet positions.

McDonald's Collection 2018 promotional card; wrapper not pictured
McDonald's Collection 2018
2018-10 · Promotional
McDonald's Collection
Promo card shown; wrapper not pictured

Market pack price

Individual card promotion; a comparable sealed booster pack is not verified.

Odds for each named card

Unknown · exact regional distribution and comparable opening evidence not verified
Dragon Majesty English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Dragon Majesty
2018-09 · Special
Sun & Moon

Market pack price

$116.56
Dragon Majesty Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.53% per pack
About 1 in 188 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.066666667 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 8 copies / 100 sheet positions. Source places the gold card with the other secret rares on the full-art Trainer/secret sheet; this is a model, not a direct per-card study.

Celestial Storm English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Celestial Storm
2018-08 · Expansion
Sun & Moon

Market pack price

$71.94
SM - Celestial Storm Celestial Storm Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.12–0.16% per pack
About 1 in 643–857 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.038888889 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 3–4 copies / 100 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Forbidden Light English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Forbidden Light
2018-05 · Expansion
Sun & Moon

Market pack price

$51.12
SM - Forbidden Light Forbidden Light Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.13% per pack
About 1 in 750 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.033333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 4 copies / 100 sheet positions.

Ultra Prism English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Ultra Prism
2018-02 · Expansion
Sun & Moon

Market pack price

$51.94
SM - Ultra Prism Ultra Prism Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.22–0.27% per pack
About 1 in 375–450 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.044444444 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 5–6 copies / 100 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. Lillie is one of nine full-art Trainers; exact FT5/FT6 allocation is unresolved.

Crimson Invasion English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Crimson Invasion
2017-11 · Expansion
Sun & Moon

Market pack price

$19.07
SM - Crimson Invasion Crimson Invasion Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.17% per pack
About 1 in 600 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.033333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 5 copies / 100 sheet positions.

Shining Legends English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Shining Legends
2017-10 · Special
Sun & Moon

Market pack price

$112.95
Shining Legends Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.91% per pack
About 1 in 110 · each named target
Opening study · source

Published 95% interval: ±0.48 percentage points

Sample and assumptions

1,536 English packs. The source records the Tube Mewtwo category, which contains this one exact card. Published 95% interval ±0.48 percentage points.

Burning Shadows English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Burning Shadows
2017-08 · Expansion
Sun & Moon

Market pack price

$30.88
SM - Burning Shadows Burning Shadows Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.11% per pack
About 1 in 923 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.036111111 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 3 copies / 100 sheet positions.

McDonald's Collection 2017 promotional card; wrapper not pictured
McDonald's Collection 2017
2017-08 · Promotional
McDonald's Collection
Promo card shown; wrapper not pictured

Market pack price

Individual card promotion; a comparable sealed booster pack is not verified.

Odds for each named card

Unknown · exact regional distribution and comparable opening evidence not verified
Guardians Rising English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Guardians Rising
2017-05 · Expansion
Sun & Moon

Market pack price

$38.73
SM - Guardians Rising Guardians Rising Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.10% per pack
About 1 in 1,000 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.033333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 3 copies / 100 sheet positions.

Sun & Moon English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Sun & Moon
2017-02 · Expansion
Sun & Moon

Market pack price

$22.16
SM Base Set Sun & Moon Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.19–0.23% per pack
About 1 in 429–514 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.038888889 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 5–6 copies / 100 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Evolutions English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Evolutions
2016-11 · Expansion
XY

Market pack price

$71.48
XY - Evolutions Evolutions Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.07–1.19% per pack
About 1 in 84–93 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.14444444 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 9–10 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. Standard holo Charizard only. Reverse holo, EX, and Mega EX have different rates; later print runs may differ from the source sample.

McDonald's Collection 2016 promotional card; wrapper not pictured
McDonald's Collection 2016
2016-08 · Promotional
McDonald's Collection
Promo card shown; wrapper not pictured

Market pack price

Individual card promotion; a comparable sealed booster pack is not verified.

Odds for each named card

Unknown · exact regional distribution and comparable opening evidence not verified
Steam Siege English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Steam Siege
2016-08 · Expansion
XY

Market pack price

$33.65
XY - Steam Siege Steam Siege Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.40% per pack
About 1 in 250 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.066666667 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 6 copies / 100 sheet positions.

Fates Collide English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Fates Collide
2016-05 · Expansion
XY

Market pack price

$45.80
XY - Fates Collide XY Fates Collide Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.80% per pack
About 1 in 125 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.066666667 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 12 copies / 100 sheet positions.

Generations English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Generations
2016-02 · Special
XY

Market pack price

$334.95
Generations Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~4.00% per pack
About 1 in 25 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 1 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 4 copies / 100 sheet positions. One modeled Radiant Collection SPa slot; seven ultra rares/full arts have four positions each.

BREAKpoint English pack, representative wrapper artwork
BREAKpoint
2016-02 · Expansion
XY

Market pack price

$51.35
XY - BREAKpoint XY BREAKpoint Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.80% per pack
About 1 in 125 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.066666667 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 12 copies / 100 sheet positions.

McDonald's Collection 2015 promotional card; wrapper not pictured
McDonald's Collection 2015
2015-11 · Promotional
McDonald's Collection
Promo card shown; wrapper not pictured

Market pack price

Individual card promotion; a comparable sealed booster pack is not verified.

Odds for each named card

Unknown · exact regional distribution and comparable opening evidence not verified
BREAKthrough English pack, representative wrapper artwork
BREAKthrough
2015-11 · Expansion
XY

Market pack price

$66.23
XY - BREAKthrough XY BREAKthrough Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.40% per pack
About 1 in 250 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.066666667 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 6 copies / 100 sheet positions.

Ancient Origins English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Ancient Origins
2015-08 · Expansion
XY

Market pack price

$150.70
XY - Ancient Origins XY Ancient Origins Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.40% per pack
About 1 in 250 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.066666667 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 6 copies / 100 sheet positions. Source assumes the three Primal/Mega showcase Pokémon share FA6 with secret rares.

Roaring Skies English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Roaring Skies
2015-05 · Expansion
XY

Market pack price

$86.25
XY - Roaring Skies Roaring Skies Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.47–0.53% per pack
About 1 in 188–214 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.066666667 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 7–8 copies / 100 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. Shaymin EX full art, not the regular EX. Secret rares use FA6.

Double Crisis English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Double Crisis
2015-03 · Special
XY

Market pack price

$428.88
Double Crisis Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~5.56% per pack
About 1 in 18 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.11111111 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 50 copies / 100 sheet positions.

Primal Clash English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Primal Clash
2015-02 · Expansion
XY

Market pack price

$92.43
XY - Primal Clash XY Primal Clash Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.33–0.40% per pack
About 1 in 250–300 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.066666667 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 5–6 copies / 100 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Phantom Forces English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Phantom Forces
2014-11 · Expansion
XY

Market pack price

$229.72
XY - Phantom Forces XY Phantom Forces Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.29% per pack
About 1 in 343 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.041666667 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 7 copies / 100 sheet positions. Dialga EX has a separately modeled FA7 allocation.

Furious Fists English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Furious Fists
2014-08 · Expansion
XY

Market pack price

$81.36
XY - Furious Fists Furious Fists Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.19% per pack
About 1 in 514 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.097222222 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 2 copies / 100 sheet positions.

McDonald's Collection 2014 promotional card; wrapper not pictured
McDonald's Collection 2014
2014-05 · Promotional
McDonald's Collection
Promo card shown; wrapper not pictured

Market pack price

Individual card promotion; a comparable sealed booster pack is not verified.

Odds for each named card

Unknown · exact regional distribution and comparable opening evidence not verified
Flashfire English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Flashfire
2014-05 · Expansion
XY

Market pack price

$159.79
XY - Flashfire Flashfire Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.29% per pack
About 1 in 343 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.097222222 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 3 copies / 100 sheet positions.

XY English pack, representative wrapper artwork
XY
2014-02 · Expansion
XY

Market pack price

$136.67
XY Base Set XY Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.44–0.47% per pack
About 1 in 212–225 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.027777778 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 16–17 copies / 100 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Legendary Treasures English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Legendary Treasures
2013-11 · Expansion
Black & White

Market pack price

$392.43
Legendary Treasures Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~5.00% per pack
About 1 in 20 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 1 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 5 copies / 100 sheet positions. One modeled SPa slot; Radiant Collection ultra rares have five positions each. Excludes lower-rarity Mew cards.

Plasma Blast English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Plasma Blast
2013-08 · Expansion
Black & White

Market pack price

$275.45
Plasma Blast Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.22% per pack
About 1 in 450 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.037037037 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 6 copies / 100 sheet positions.

Plasma Freeze English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Plasma Freeze
2013-05 · Expansion
Black & White

Market pack price

$329.09
Plasma Freeze Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-23.

Odds for each named card

~0.14% per pack
About 1 in 720 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.046296296 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 3 copies / 100 sheet positions.

Plasma Storm English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Plasma Storm
2013-02 · Expansion
Black & White

Market pack price

$651.13
Plasma Storm Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.44% per pack
About 1 in 225 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.037037037 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 12 copies / 100 sheet positions. Secret rares are assigned FA12 on the shared full-art sheet.

Boundaries Crossed English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Boundaries Crossed
2012-11 · Expansion
Black & White

Market pack price

$246.11
Boundaries Crossed Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.41–0.46% per pack
About 1 in 218–245 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.050925926 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 8–9 copies / 100 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. Skyla belongs to the full-art class; four secret rares have a lower FA5 allocation.

Dragon Vault English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Dragon Vault
2012-10 · Special
Black & White

Market pack price

No supported price yet
Dragon Vault Booster Pack
No supported USD guide · Source date unavailable
Price evidence

Sold comps last checked 2026-08-16.

Odds for each named card

~4.13% per pack
About 1 in 24 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 5 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 1 copies / 121 sheet positions. Five cards from the modeled holo sheet per Dragon Vault pack. This rate uses five draws and one Kyurem position; sequential collation is assumed, not five independent draws.

Dragons Exalted English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Dragons Exalted
2012-08 · Expansion
Black & White

Market pack price

$362.20
Dragons Exalted Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-10-29
Price evidence

Older price evidence. Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.23–0.24% per pack
About 1 in 422–436 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.0092592593 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 30–31 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

McDonald's Collection 2012 promotional card; wrapper not pictured
McDonald's Collection 2012
2012-06 · Promotional
McDonald's Collection
Promo card shown; wrapper not pictured

Market pack price

Individual card promotion; a comparable sealed booster pack is not verified.

Odds for each named card

Unknown · exact regional distribution and comparable opening evidence not verified
Dark Explorers English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Dark Explorers
2012-05 · Expansion
Black & White

Market pack price

$396.63
Dark Explorers Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.31–0.31% per pack
About 1 in 319–327 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.0092592593 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 40–41 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Next Destinies English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Next Destinies
2012-02 · Expansion
Black & White

Market pack price

$383.04
Next Destinies Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.44–0.47% per pack
About 1 in 212–225 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.027777778 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 16–17 copies / 100 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Noble Victories English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Noble Victories
2011-11 · Expansion
Black & White

Market pack price

$168.87
Noble Victories Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.11% per pack
About 1 in 90 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.055555556 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 20 copies / 100 sheet positions.

Emerging Powers English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Emerging Powers
2011-08 · Expansion
Black & White

Market pack price

$110.00
Emerging Powers Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~2.78% per pack
About 1 in 36 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.055555556 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 50 copies / 100 sheet positions.

McDonald's Collection 2011 promotional card; wrapper not pictured
McDonald's Collection 2011
2011-06 · Promotional
McDonald's Collection
Promo card shown; wrapper not pictured

Market pack price

Individual card promotion; a comparable sealed booster pack is not verified.

Odds for each named card

Unknown · exact regional distribution and comparable opening evidence not verified
Black & White English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Black & White
2011-04 · Expansion
Black & White

Market pack price

$187.99
Black and White Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.39% per pack
About 1 in 72 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.013888889 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 121 copies / 121 sheet positions.

Call of Legends English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Call of Legends
2011-02 · Expansion
Call of Legends

Market pack price

$1,114.85
Call of Legends Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.51% per pack
About 1 in 198 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.055555556 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 11 copies / 121 sheet positions. All 11 Shiny Legends modeled with equal sheet counts.

Triumphant English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Triumphant
2010-11 · Expansion
HeartGold & SoulSilver

Market pack price

$400.00
Triumphant Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.67–1.81% per pack
About 1 in 55–60 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.13888889 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 12–13 copies / 100 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Undaunted English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Undaunted
2010-08 · Expansion
HeartGold & SoulSilver

Market pack price

$490.00
Undaunted Booster Pack
Asking-price guide · 2026-07-08
Price evidence

Older price evidence. Asking prices are not completed sales. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~2.22–2.36% per pack
About 1 in 42–45 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.13888889 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 16–17 copies / 100 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Unleashed English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Unleashed
2010-05 · Expansion
HeartGold & SoulSilver

Market pack price

$433.32
Unleashed Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-07
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.36–1.44% per pack
About 1 in 69–73 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.083333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 18–19 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. One specific LEGEND half; excludes the separate bottom half.

HeartGold SoulSilver English pack, representative wrapper artwork
HeartGold SoulSilver
2010-02 · Expansion
HeartGold & SoulSilver

Market pack price

$449.99
HeartGold SoulSilver Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~2.05–2.12% per pack
About 1 in 47–49 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.083333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 27–28 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. Lugia LEGEND top half only, not a complete two-card LEGEND. Sheet model assumes paired halves.

Arceus English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Arceus
2009-11 · Expansion
Platinum

Market pack price

$568.06
Arceus Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-08-30.

Odds for each named card

~1.38–1.45% per pack
About 1 in 69–73 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.083333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 20–21 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Supreme Victors English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Supreme Victors
2009-08 · Expansion
Platinum

Market pack price

$737.49
Supreme Victors Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.37–1.45% per pack
About 1 in 69–73 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.097222222 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 17–18 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Rising Rivals English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Rising Rivals
2009-05 · Expansion
Platinum

Market pack price

$999.99
Rising Rivals Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.92% per pack
About 1 in 109 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.27777778 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 4 copies / 121 sheet positions.

POP Series 9 English pack, representative wrapper artwork
POP Series 9
2009-03 · Promotional
POP

Market pack price

No supported price yet
POP Series 9 Pack
No supported USD guide · Source date unavailable
Price evidence

Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~3.31% per pack
About 1 in 30 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.5 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 8 copies / 121 sheet positions. POP pack version only; separate holo promotional releases are not pack pulls. Series 8/9 contain two Pokémon plus an Energy; this rare uses the mixed rare/uncommon slot.

Platinum English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Platinum
2009-02 · Expansion
Platinum

Market pack price

$389.74
Platinum Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.92–0.96% per pack
About 1 in 104–109 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.055555556 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 20–21 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Stormfront English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Stormfront
2008-11 · Expansion
Diamond & Pearl

Market pack price

$596.55
Stormfront Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.92% per pack
About 1 in 109 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.27777778 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 4 copies / 121 sheet positions.

POP Series 8 English pack, representative wrapper artwork
POP Series 8
2008-09 · Promotional
POP

Market pack price

$29.76
POP Series 8 Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~3.31% per pack
About 1 in 30 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.5 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 8 copies / 121 sheet positions. POP pack version only; separate holo promotional releases are not pack pulls. Series 8/9 contain two Pokémon plus an Energy; this rare uses the mixed rare/uncommon slot.

Legends Awakened English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Legends Awakened
2008-08 · Expansion
Diamond & Pearl

Market pack price

No supported price yet
Legends Awakened Booster Pack
No supported USD guide · Source date unavailable
Price evidence

Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.78–0.83% per pack
About 1 in 121–128 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.055555556 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 17–18 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Majestic Dawn English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Majestic Dawn
2008-05 · Expansion
Diamond & Pearl

Market pack price

No supported price yet
Majestic Dawn Booster Pack
No supported USD guide · Source date unavailable
Price evidence

Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.69–0.71% per pack
About 1 in 141–145 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.027777778 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 30–31 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

POP Series 7 English pack, representative wrapper artwork
POP Series 7
2008-03 · Promotional
POP

Market pack price

$49.77
POP Series 7 Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-10-18
Price evidence

Older price evidence. Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.98–2.07% per pack
About 1 in 48–50 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.1 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 24–25 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. POP pack version only; separate holo promotional releases are not pack pulls.

Great Encounters English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Great Encounters
2008-02 · Expansion
Diamond & Pearl

Market pack price

$347.35
Great Encounters Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.69–0.71% per pack
About 1 in 141–145 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.027777778 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 30–31 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Secret Wonders English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Secret Wonders
2007-11 · Expansion
Diamond & Pearl

Market pack price

$628.19
Secret Wonders Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.69–0.70% per pack
About 1 in 143–145 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.013888889 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 60–61 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

POP Series 6 English pack, representative wrapper artwork
POP Series 6
2007-09 · Promotional
POP

Market pack price

$47.50
POP Series 6 Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.98–2.07% per pack
About 1 in 48–50 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.1 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 24–25 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. POP pack version only; separate holo promotional releases are not pack pulls.

Mysterious Treasures English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Mysterious Treasures
2007-08 · Expansion
Diamond & Pearl

Market pack price

$339.83
Mysterious Treasures Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.92–0.94% per pack
About 1 in 106–109 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.027777778 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 40–41 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Diamond & Pearl English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Diamond & Pearl
2007-05 · Expansion
Diamond & Pearl

Market pack price

$304.17
Diamond and Pearl Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.92–0.94% per pack
About 1 in 106–109 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.027777778 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 40–41 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

POP Series 5 English pack, representative wrapper artwork
POP Series 5
2007-03 · Promotional
POP

Market pack price

$2,290.00
POP Series 5 Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-10-09
Price evidence

Older price evidence. Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.65–1.74% per pack
About 1 in 58–61 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.1 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 20–21 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. POP pack version only; separate holo promotional releases are not pack pulls.

Power Keepers English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Power Keepers
2007-02 · Expansion
EX

Market pack price

$999.99
Power Keepers Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.41% per pack
About 1 in 242 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.25 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 2 copies / 121 sheet positions. Jolteon Star is explicitly assigned H2 on the 121-position holo sheet.

Dragon Frontiers English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Dragon Frontiers
2006-11 · Expansion
EX

Market pack price

$1,999.99
Dragon Frontiers Booster Pack
Asking-price guide · 2026-08-17
Price evidence

Older price evidence. Asking prices are not completed sales. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.41% per pack
About 1 in 242 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.25 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 2 copies / 121 sheet positions. Gold Stars share a modeled 121-position holo sheet. Other sheet sizes in this set differ.

Crystal Guardians English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Crystal Guardians
2006-08 · Expansion
EX

Market pack price

$1,649.99
Crystal Guardians Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.35% per pack
About 1 in 283 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.19444444 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 2 copies / 110 sheet positions. Gold Stars share the ordinary holo sheet in this model, rather than a universal Gold Star rate.

POP Series 4 English pack, representative wrapper artwork
POP Series 4
2006-08 · Promotional
POP

Market pack price

$190.01
POP Series 4 Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.65–1.74% per pack
About 1 in 58–61 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.1 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 20–21 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. POP pack version only; separate holo promotional releases are not pack pulls.

Holon Phantoms English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Holon Phantoms
2006-05 · Expansion
EX

Market pack price

$1,901.99
Holon Phantoms Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.46% per pack
About 1 in 216 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.0092592593 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 55 copies / 110 sheet positions. Pikachu and Mewtwo share the two-card Gold Star sheet. Gyarados Star belongs to a different holo-sheet class.

POP Series 3 English pack, representative wrapper artwork
POP Series 3
2006-04 · Promotional
POP

Market pack price

$193.94
POP Series 3 Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.40–1.49% per pack
About 1 in 67–71 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.1 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 17–18 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. POP pack version only; separate holo promotional releases are not pack pulls.

Legend Maker English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Legend Maker
2006-02 · Expansion
EX

Market pack price

$1,600.00
Legend Maker Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.30–0.31% per pack
About 1 in 321–330 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.0092592593 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 36–37 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Delta Species English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Delta Species
2005-10 · Expansion
EX

Market pack price

$441.00
Delta Species Booster Pack
eBay sold guide · 2026-10-08
Price evidence

Older price evidence. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-19.

Odds for each named card

~0.30–0.31% per pack
About 1 in 321–330 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.0092592593 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 36–37 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Unseen Forces English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Unseen Forces
2005-08 · Expansion
EX

Market pack price

No supported price yet
Unseen Forces Booster Pack
No supported USD guide · Source date unavailable
Price evidence

Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.30–0.31% per pack
About 1 in 321–330 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.0092592593 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 36–37 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

POP Series 2 English pack, representative wrapper artwork
POP Series 2
2005-08 · Promotional
POP

Market pack price

$146.94
POP Series 2 Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.40–1.49% per pack
About 1 in 67–71 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.1 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 17–18 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. POP pack version only; separate holo promotional releases are not pack pulls.

Emerald English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Emerald
2005-05 · Expansion
EX

Market pack price

$2,000.00
Emerald Booster Pack
Asking-price guide · 2026-10-24
Price evidence

Older price evidence. Asking prices are not completed sales. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.36–1.44% per pack
About 1 in 69–73 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.083333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 18–19 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Deoxys English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Deoxys
2005-02 · Expansion
EX

Market pack price

$2,399.99
Deoxys Booster Pack
Asking-price guide · 2026-02-26
Price evidence

Older price evidence. Asking prices are not completed sales. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.30–0.31% per pack
About 1 in 321–330 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.0092592593 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 36–37 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Team Rocket Returns English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Team Rocket Returns
2004-11 · Expansion
EX

Market pack price

No supported price yet
Team Rocket Returns Booster Pack
No supported USD guide · Source date unavailable
Price evidence

Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.30–0.31% per pack
About 1 in 321–330 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.0092592593 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 36–37 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. Gold Star insertion modeled at two per 216-pack sequence, not a guaranteed case pull.

POP Series 1 English pack, representative wrapper artwork
POP Series 1
2004-09 · Promotional
POP

Market pack price

$141.36
POP Series 1 Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.40–1.49% per pack
About 1 in 67–71 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.1 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 17–18 copies / 121 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. POP pack version only; separate holo promotional releases are not pack pulls.

FireRed & LeafGreen English pack, representative wrapper artwork
FireRed & LeafGreen
2004-09 · Expansion
EX

Market pack price

$1,013.30
FireRed & LeafGreen Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-18.

Odds for each named card

~0.91–0.98% per pack
About 1 in 102–110 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.083333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 12–13 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Hidden Legends English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Hidden Legends
2004-06 · Expansion
EX

Market pack price

$800.00
Hidden Legends Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.91–0.96% per pack
About 1 in 104–110 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.055555556 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 18–19 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. Regice ex belongs to the six-card Pokémon-ex class; the three other ex use a separate sheet/insertion rate.

Team Magma vs Team Aqua English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Team Magma vs Team Aqua
2004-03 · Expansion
EX

Market pack price

$1,349.99
Team Magma vs Team Aqua Booster Pack
Asking-price guide · Source date unavailable
Price evidence

Guide updated 2026-11-08; underlying price source date unavailable. Asking prices are not completed sales. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.14–1.21% per pack
About 1 in 83–88 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.083333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 15–16 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Dragon English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Dragon
2003-11 · Expansion
EX

Market pack price

$1,125.00
Dragon EX Dragon Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.82–1.97% per pack
About 1 in 51–55 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.16666667 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 12–13 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Sandstorm English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Sandstorm
2003-09 · Expansion
EX

Market pack price

No supported price yet
Sandstorm Booster Pack
No supported USD guide · Source date unavailable
Price evidence

Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~2.27–2.42% per pack
About 1 in 41–44 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.16666667 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 15–16 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Ruby & Sapphire English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Ruby & Sapphire
2003-07 · Expansion
EX

Market pack price

$799.99
Ruby and Sapphire Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.97–2.12% per pack
About 1 in 47–51 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.16666667 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 13–14 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. Regular print run only. The documented early error run doubled Pokémon-ex insertions.

Skyridge English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Skyridge
2003-05 · Expansion
E-Card

Market pack price

$3,520.00
Skyridge Booster Pack
eBay sold guide · 2026-09-30
Price evidence

Older price evidence. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-16.

Odds for each named card

~0.61% per pack
About 1 in 165 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.33333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 2 copies / 110 sheet positions. Crystal cards are presumed H2, based on the source reconstruction; assignment is unconfirmed. Excludes reverse holo.

Aquapolis English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Aquapolis
2003-01 · Expansion
E-Card

Market pack price

$1,999.99
Aquapolis Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.91–1.21% per pack
About 1 in 83–110 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.33333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 3–4 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. Crystal Lugia is on the holo sheet; the source arbitrarily assigns H3. We retain the H3–H4 class range instead of treating that assignment as established.

Expedition Base Set English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Expedition Base Set
2002-09 · Expansion
E-Card

Market pack price

$4,800.00
Expedition Booster Pack
Asking-price guide · Source date unavailable
Price evidence

Guide updated 2026-11-08; underlying price source date unavailable. Asking prices are not completed sales. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.91–1.21% per pack
About 1 in 83–110 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.33333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 3–4 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Legendary Collection English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Legendary Collection
2002-05 · Expansion
Legendary Collection

Market pack price

$4,999.99
Legendary Collection Booster Pack
Asking-price guide · 2026-03-18
Price evidence

Older price evidence. Asking prices are not completed sales. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~0.91% per pack
About 1 in 110 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 1 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 1 copies / 110 sheet positions. One modeled reverse slot across 110 cards. This is the reverse holo, not the regular holo Charizard.

Neo Destiny English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Neo Destiny
2002-02 · Expansion
Neo

Market pack price

$1,699.00
Neo Destiny Booster Pack [Unlimited Edition]
Asking-price guide · Source date unavailable
Price evidence

Guide updated 2026-11-08; underlying price source date unavailable. Asking prices are not completed sales. Sold comps not yet verified.

$4,473.49
Neo Destiny Booster Pack [1st Edition]
Asking-price guide · 2026-10-17
Price evidence

Older price evidence. Asking prices are not completed sales. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-17.

Odds for each named card

~0.98–1.06% per pack
About 1 in 94–102 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.083333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 13–14 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. Normal 1st Edition/unlimited model. A separate unlimited error run has 50% more Shining insertions and is excluded.

Neo Revelation English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Neo Revelation
2001-09 · Expansion
Neo

Market pack price

$889.99
Neo Revelation Booster Pack [Unlimited Edition]
Asking-price guide · Source date unavailable
Price evidence

Guide updated 2026-11-08; underlying price source date unavailable. Asking prices are not completed sales. Sold comps not yet verified.

No supported price yet
Neo Revelation Booster Pack [1st Edition]
No supported USD guide · Source date unavailable
Price evidence

Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.82% per pack
About 1 in 55 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.33333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 6 copies / 110 sheet positions. Both Shining cards are presumed H6 in the source, based on a limited box sample; assignment is unconfirmed.

Neo Discovery English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Neo Discovery
2001-06 · Expansion
Neo

Market pack price

$537.50
Neo Discovery Booster Pack [Unlimited Edition]
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-10-10
Price evidence

Older price evidence. Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

$1,500.00
Neo Discovery Booster Pack [1st Edition]
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.82–2.12% per pack
About 1 in 47–55 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.33333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 6–7 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Neo Genesis English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Neo Genesis
2000-12 · Expansion
Neo

Market pack price

$631.99
Neo Genesis Booster Pack [Unlimited Edition]
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

No supported price yet
Neo Genesis Booster Pack [1st Edition]
No supported USD guide · Source date unavailable
Price evidence

Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Odds for each named card

~1.82–2.12% per pack
About 1 in 47–55 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.33333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 6–7 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval. Lugia is in the unresolved H6/H7 group. Starter holos have a separate H4 allocation.

Gym Challenge English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Gym Challenge
2000-10 · Expansion
Gym

Market pack price

$419.99
Gym Challenge Booster Pack [Unlimited Edition]
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

$816.67
Gym Challenge Booster Pack [1st Edition]
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.52–1.82% per pack
About 1 in 55–66 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.33333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 5–6 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Gym Heroes English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Gym Heroes
2000-08 · Expansion
Gym

Market pack price

$279.08
Gym Heroes Booster Pack [Unlimited Edition]
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

$563.33
Gym Heroes Booster Pack [1st Edition]
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.52–1.82% per pack
About 1 in 55–66 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.33333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 5–6 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Team Rocket English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Team Rocket
2000-04 · Expansion
Base

Market pack price

$329.64
Team Rocket Booster Pack [Unlimited Edition]
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

$755.29
Team Rocket Booster Pack [1st Edition]
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.82% per pack
About 1 in 55 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.33333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 6 copies / 110 sheet positions. Dark Charizard and Dark Raichu are H6. Only Dark Arbok and Dark Weezing are H7.

Base Set 2 English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Base Set 2
2000-02 · Expansion
Base

Market pack price

$459.26
Base Set 2 Booster Pack
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.52–1.82% per pack
About 1 in 55–66 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Sheet-model range; not a confidence interval

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.33333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 5–6 copies / 110 sheet positions. The source cannot assign an exact sheet count to this card; the range covers its modeled class, not a confidence interval.

Fossil English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Fossil
1999-10 · Expansion
Base

Market pack price

$340.31
Fossil Booster Pack [Unlimited Edition]
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

$671.35
Fossil Booster Pack [1st Edition]
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~2.12% per pack
About 1 in 47 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.33333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 7 copies / 110 sheet positions. Gengar is outside the five documented H8 cards; first edition and unlimited.

Jungle English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Jungle
1999-06 · Expansion
Base

Market pack price

$327.27
Jungle Booster Pack [Unlimited Edition]
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

$774.05
Jungle Booster Pack [1st Edition]
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~1.82% per pack
About 1 in 55 · each named target
Sheet model · source
Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.33333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 6 copies / 110 sheet positions. Wigglytuff is explicitly assigned H6; first edition and unlimited.

Base Set English pack, representative wrapper artwork
Base Set
1999-01 · Expansion
Base

Market pack price

$897.89
Base Set Booster Pack [Revised Unlimited Edition]
TCGPlayer market guide · 2026-11-08
Price evidence

Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Odds for each named card

~2.12% per pack
About 1 in 47 · each named target
Sheet model · source

Unlimited only; excludes 1st Edition and Shadowless

Sample and assumptions

Community print-sheet reconstruction and pack-opening analysis. Model: 0.33333333 eligible-sheet insertions per pack × 7 copies / 110 sheet positions. Unlimited printing only. Do not use for 1st Edition or Shadowless packs. Machamp was a deck card, not a booster pull.

What a pack price buys

A pack buys its contents and a chance at a card pool. The directory covers all 129 English expansion and special sets through October 3, 2026, plus nine POP series and twelve McDonald’s releases. Chase estimates now cover all 129 expansions and nine POP series, with opening studies, small observed samples, and print-sheet models labeled separately. The budget comparison ranks modeled chances at each exact card and shows its dated raw single guide value. None is a guaranteed pull.

History, calculator, methodology, and sources

Key takeaways

  • 129 expansion and special sets, plus 21 POP and McDonald’s releases, are individually searchable. Other promotional pack families have their own appendix.
  • Prices name the exact pack edition and underlying market source. A market-price fallback is not verified sold evidence.
  • Compare whole-pack chase chances for your budget with the exact raw single’s guide value. A higher chance is not a full-pack expected-value or profit ranking.
  • Any-SIR odds and the odds of one exact SIR are different. Keep language, set, card number, and rarity together.
  • One in 1,000 is an average rate. Opening 1,000 packs at that modeled rate still leaves about a 36.8% chance of no target.
  • Vintage estimates use set-specific print-sheet reconstructions. Unresolved sheet assignments appear as model ranges, not confidence intervals. Missing prices and unobserved cards remain unknown.

1. Thirty years of packs: what this guide covers

The Pokémon Trading Card Game began in Japan in 1996. English Base Set followed in 1999. That makes the thirtieth anniversary a history of the game, rather than thirty years of English booster releases. Japanese expansions, English expansions, and other regional releases have different names, card pools, pack formats, and release schedules. A Japanese booster cannot inherit the odds or price of its English counterpart.

This guide inventories English physical expansion packs through October 3, 2026: every regular expansion and special set in the directory, followed by POP and McDonald’s releases and a separate appendix for other promotional pack families. It covers the set inside the pack. It does not count every wrapper artwork, retailer blister, reprint wave, box, tin, or language as a new expansion. Pokémon TCG Pocket is a digital game and is outside this physical-pack directory.

“Complete” describes the expansion checklist, not the availability of prices or probabilities. Old release dates can differ by country; the directory displays release month and year from the cited catalog. Where we have not verified a comparable price or a credible pull-rate study, the result is unknown. Neither a missing price nor a missing probability means zero.

2. What are you paying for when you open a pack?

A sealed pack buys its contents, the opening experience, and a chance at cards from a particular pool. The price tag does not promise a chase card. There are three different questions: what does a pack cost, how often does its rarity appear, and how often does the exact card you want appear? A claim such as “one Special Illustration Rare in 87 packs” describes a rarity class. It cannot be used as the chance of one specific Pikachu.

The same Pokémon can have a regular ex, an Ultra Rare, a Special Illustration Rare, and another treatment in the same set. The card number is essential. In Surging Sparks, Pikachu ex 238/191 is a different target from 057/191, 219/191, or 247/191. A correct name paired with the wrong number can make a pack-opening comparison meaningless.

Keep the target precise: English set, exact card number, rarity, and finish. Then compare the pack cost with the price of that exact single in the condition you want. Opening a card does not automatically make it mint, perfectly centered, or a particular grading outcome. The odds of pulling it and the odds of receiving a future PSA 10 are separate questions.

3. 1999–2003: Base, Jungle, Fossil, Rocket, Gym, Neo, and e-Card

English collecting starts with Base Set, Jungle, and Fossil, followed by Base Set 2 and Team Rocket. Gym Heroes and Gym Challenge introduce trainer-associated Pokémon. Neo Genesis, Neo Discovery, Neo Revelation, and Neo Destiny carry the next generation into the English game. Legendary Collection revisits early cards; Expedition, Aquapolis, and Skyridge form the e-Card period. All fifteen expansions appear individually in the directory.

Vintage chase conversations often center on Base Set Charizard, Neo Genesis Lugia, Neo Destiny’s Shining cards, and the Crystal Pokémon in the e-Card sets. Those are different rarity structures. A holo rate, a secret-card rate, and the probability of one specific Crystal card are different measurements. The directory uses set-specific community sheet reconstructions, with printing restrictions and unresolved model ranges attached. These estimates depend on the source’s insertion-rate assumptions and do not establish the odds of a seller-selected or weighed loose pack.

A sealed vintage pack also has value as a surviving collectible. Opening it consumes that object permanently. Even a valuable pull may fail to offset the sealed-pack price, and a broad holo assumption cannot establish expected value. For a nostalgic opening, choose the experience and spending limit deliberately; for a specific card, compare the exact single first.

4. 2003–2007: the sixteen EX expansions

The EX sequence runs from Ruby & Sapphire through Sandstorm, Dragon, Team Magma vs Team Aqua, Hidden Legends, FireRed & LeafGreen, Team Rocket Returns, Deoxys, Emerald, Unseen Forces, Delta Species, Legend Maker, Holon Phantoms, Crystal Guardians, Dragon Frontiers, and Power Keepers. These are sixteen separate card pools, even when packaging and naming share the EX prefix.

Pokémon-ex, Gold Star Pokémon, and Delta Species cards make this period especially sensitive to identity. Not every EX expansion contains Gold Stars, and a Gold Star in one set says nothing about a different set’s rate. The Unseen Forces Unown Collection is a subset within its parent expansion, rather than a seventeenth retail expansion pack.

POP Series packs belong beside this history, but in the promotional lane. The nine POP series were distributed through organized play. POP Series 5 is famous for its Gold Star cards, yet its distribution and card pool should not be merged with an EX retail booster. Its directory row labels the community sheet-model estimate separately from measured opening studies. Unknown prices remain visible.

5. 2007–2011: Diamond & Pearl, Platinum, HeartGold & SoulSilver

The seven Diamond & Pearl expansions are Diamond & Pearl, Mysterious Treasures, Secret Wonders, Great Encounters, Majestic Dawn, Legends Awakened, and Stormfront. Four Platinum expansions follow: Platinum, Rising Rivals, Supreme Victors, and Arceus. HeartGold & SoulSilver then brings Unleashed, Undaunted, and Triumphant before Call of Legends.

LV.X, Pokémon SP, Pokémon LEGEND halves, Prime cards, and shiny treatments are not interchangeable hits. A collector pursuing both halves of a LEGEND card needs a different probability question from someone pursuing any premium card. Complete-pair odds require a model of both targets and their pack slots, rather than reusing a single-card percentage.

This period also illustrates why promo numbering is not a booster checklist. DP and HGSS Black Star Promos gather cards from many products and events. Trainer Kits and Pokémon Rumble have fixed contents. Those products matter to collectors, but assigning them a retail booster chase rate would describe the wrong purchase.

6. 2011–2016: Black & White, full arts, EX, Mega, and BREAK

The eleven Black & White expansions run from Black & White through Emerging Powers, Noble Victories, Next Destinies, Dark Explorers, Dragons Exalted, Boundaries Crossed, Plasma Storm, Plasma Freeze, Plasma Blast, and Legendary Treasures. Dragon Vault adds a smaller special pack format. Legendary Treasures contains a Radiant Collection subset, which is counted with its parent pack.

The twelve XY expansions are XY, Flashfire, Furious Fists, Phantom Forces, Primal Clash, Roaring Skies, Ancient Origins, BREAKthrough, BREAKpoint, Fates Collide, Steam Siege, and Evolutions. Double Crisis and Generations are separate special releases. Mega Evolution Pokémon and BREAK cards add new treatments, while Evolutions revisits the look and characters of the early game.

Different premium cards may use different slots. A pack can sometimes contain more than one kind of hit, so adding the individual percentages can double-count a pack. Radiant Collection is another reason that “hit rate” needs a definition. A rate for any attractive foil is not the probability of a chosen full art or secret rare.

7. 2017–2019: GX, Rainbow Rares, TAG TEAM, and special sets

The twelve regular Sun & Moon expansions run from Sun & Moon through Guardians Rising, Burning Shadows, Crimson Invasion, Ultra Prism, Forbidden Light, Celestial Storm, Lost Thunder, Team Up, Unbroken Bonds, Unified Minds, and Cosmic Eclipse. Shining Legends, Dragon Majesty, Detective Pikachu, and Hidden Fates have separate special-set packs.

Pokémon-GX, Rainbow Rares, and TAG TEAM cards create several distinct versions of the same character combination. Cosmic Eclipse character cards and Hidden Fates’ Shiny Vault add another layer. The Shiny Vault is opened through Hidden Fates packs, not through a separate Shiny Vault expansion booster. Detective Pikachu uses its own smaller pack format and card pool.

For older special releases, the price of an ETB or collection box can include an important promo and substantial sealed demand. Dividing that price by its expansion pack count is a gross cost per pack. It does not establish that the promo has no value or that those packs have stronger odds than the same expansion packs sold elsewhere.

8. 2020–2023: V, VMAX, alternate art, Trainer Gallery, Galarian Gallery

The twelve regular Sword & Shield expansions are Sword & Shield, Rebel Clash, Darkness Ablaze, Vivid Voltage, Battle Styles, Chilling Reign, Evolving Skies, Fusion Strike, Brilliant Stars, Astral Radiance, Lost Origin, and Silver Tempest. Champion’s Path, Shining Fates, Celebrations, Pokémon GO, and Crown Zenith are separate special sets.

Alternate-art V and VMAX cards can be the exact target, while Amazing Rares, Shiny Vault, Trainer Gallery, and Galarian Gallery cards occupy other collecting lanes. Brilliant Stars, Astral Radiance, Lost Origin, and Silver Tempest each have a Trainer Gallery subset. Crown Zenith’s Galarian Gallery belongs to Crown Zenith packs. Celebrations’ Classic Collection belongs to Celebrations packs.

TCGplayer’s historical Evolving Skies opening study estimates a specific alternate-art VMAX at 0.05% ± 0.05 percentage points, assuming equal population among six cards. The lower end reaches zero, illustrating how uncertain a very scarce target can be. The distinction matters when comparing Evolving Skies with Crown Zenith or Celebrations. A high frequency of one gallery treatment does not transfer to an alternate-art VMAX from a different expansion. Neither an opening video nor a box with several hits establishes a universal guarantee for the next box.

9. 2023–2025: Illustration Rares, SIRs, ACE SPEC, and larger pools

The regular Scarlet & Violet sequence is Scarlet & Violet, Paldea Evolved, Obsidian Flames, Paradox Rift, Temporal Forces, Twilight Masquerade, Stellar Crown, Surging Sparks, Journey Together, and Destined Rivals. Special sets add 151, Paldean Fates, Shrouded Fable, Prismatic Evolutions, Black Bolt, and White Flare. Black Bolt and White Flare are separate expansion pools.

This era makes the difference between a rarity and an exact card particularly visible. Illustration Rares and Special Illustration Rares have different rates. A bigger pool of SIRs can reduce the chance of your one chosen SIR even when the overall SIR frequency is similar. ACE SPEC cards introduce a further category that should be tracked separately.

The examples below use English pack-opening studies and identify specific card numbers. They do not apply to Japanese 151, a mini pack, a resealed product, or an arbitrary mystery pack. Paldean Fates’ shiny treatments are also separate from its SIRs: pulling a shiny Pokémon is not equivalent to pulling Charizard ex 234/091.

10. 2025–2026: Mega Evolution and 30th Celebration

The Mega Evolution period currently includes Mega Evolution, Phantasmal Flames, Ascended Heroes, Perfect Order, Chaos Rising, Pitch Black, and 30th Celebration. Ascended Heroes and 30th Celebration belong in the special-set lane. Releases announced for after this guide’s October 3 cutoff are not counted as already available.

Pokémon’s official 30th Celebration showcase describes five foil cards plus a foil Energy in an expansion pack, including a Pikachu from the thirty-card Pikachu group. That inclusion must not be confused with a guaranteed Pikachu ex Special Illustration Rare. The regular Pikachu group, SIR Pikachu ex cards, and other anniversary treatments have different identities.

TCGplayer’s September 24 study opened more than 3,000 packs. It reported 4.88% for any SIR and 0.49% for a specific SIR, with uncertainty. It found no RGB Rare Mew in that sample and listed the rate as unknown. Zero observations do not establish impossibility. The directory therefore keeps the RGB chase unknown rather than turning “not observed” into a 0% chance.

11. Pack price versus the exact chase: worked examples

The cards below compare Twilight Masquerade, Surging Sparks, and Paldean Fates using each pack’s dated catalog value. Price basis and sold-evidence freshness appear alongside their specific-SIR estimates of approximately 0.11%, 0.10%, and 0.22% per pack respectively. These are estimates, not promises.

The study tables publish rounded percentages and rounded “one in X” shorthand. Those figures do not invert perfectly. This guide uses the published percentage for calculations and preserves the study’s shorthand separately. A 0.10% input means roughly 1,000 packs per hit on average in the model, while the source’s rounded shorthand says one in 960. Neither figure is a buying instruction.

Under an equal-population assumption, another specific SIR from the same rarity pool gets the same modeled point estimate. That is an assumption supported by the study’s method, not a separate direct measurement of each card. The table names one or more exact targets for each researched set and links to its source, sample, and assumptions. A confidence interval is displayed only when the source supplies one.

Twilight Masquerade English booster packGreninja ex SIR 214/167

Twilight Masquerade

$9.26 / pack

Greninja ex SIR 214/167

~0.11%

per pack · source shorthand: 1 in 941

95% interval ±0.07 percentage points. TCGPlayer market guide. Price source 2026-11-08. Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

Surging Sparks English booster packPikachu ex SIR 238/191

Surging Sparks

$8.70 / pack

Pikachu ex SIR 238/191

~0.10%

per pack · source shorthand: 1 in 960

95% interval ±0.07 percentage points. TCGPlayer market guide. Price source 2026-11-08. Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps last checked 2026-10-07.

Paldean Fates English booster packCharizard ex SIR 234/91

Paldean Fates

$24.20 / pack

Charizard ex SIR 234/91

~0.22%

per pack · source shorthand: 1 in 465

95% interval ±0.21 percentage points. TCGPlayer market guide. Price source 2026-11-08. Market guide; fresh sold evidence does not currently support a sold-based value. Sold comps not yet verified.

12. How many packs buy a meaningful chance?

For a per-pack probability p and n independent eligible packs, the probability of at least one target is 1 − (1 − p)^n. Expected packs to the first target are 1/p; expected spend is pack price divided by p. “Expected” is a mathematical average across repeated trials, not the amount you will spend or a cap on your losses.

At a modeled 0.10% chance, 36 packs give about a 3.54% chance of at least one target. Around 693 packs reach 50%, 2,302 reach 90%, and 2,995 reach 95%. Opening the average 1,000 packs still gives only about a 63.2% chance. There is no finite number of independent packs that makes a less-than-certain target guaranteed.

The calculator treats pack price and pull probability as constant inputs. Real product selection, manufacturing batches, search or selection of loose packs, and an uncertain study estimate can break that model. The displayed range varies the probability over the study’s published interval or the sheet-model endpoints; it is a sensitivity calculation, not a personal-results confidence interval. It does not measure resale return or grading outcomes.

Surging Sparks: Pikachu ex SIR 238/191Pikachu ex SIR 238/191 · Holofoil · view raw card

Pikachu ex SIR 238/191 · ~0.10% per pack · Opening study. Published 95% interval ±0.07 percentage points. Published specific-card estimate assumes equal population within this rarity; it is not a separate observed count for every named card. Source

At least one target
3.54%
No target
96.46%
Pack spending
$313.20

Probability sensitivity using the supplied interval or model bounds: 1.07% to 5.94%. This range does not bound your personal results.

Pack counts for a modeled chance of at least one
ChancePacksCost at your input
50%693$6,029.10
90%2,302$20,027.40
95%2,995$26,056.50

Model average: 1,000 packs to the first target, or $8,700.00 at your input. Actual outcomes vary. The model assumes independent eligible packs and a constant probability. No checkout costs are added to your input. A sold guide may already include reported shipping. A missing price is never treated as a free pack.

13. Which pack formats can you compare?

An expansion can appear in a loose booster, a cardboard sleeve, a blister, a Booster Bundle, a Booster Box, an ETB, a tin, or a collection box. The outer product may include other expansion packs, fixed promos, accessories, or exclusive stamps. Count eligible packs for the exact target, rather than every pack in a mixed box.

For a gross comparison, divide the all-in product cost by the number of eligible packs. If a $60 box contains ten packs but only four can contain your target, its target-specific gross cost is $15 per eligible pack. If it contains six packs from the target expansion, the same cost is $10. This calculation does not allocate value to the remaining contents.

A separate allocation can credit a promo or accessory, but only with a defensible value for that exact item and its condition. Do not subtract an optimistic asking price to manufacture cheap packs. Keep the original gross cost visible. Mini packs, sample packs, event packs, and Japanese boxes need their own content and odds research; standard English booster estimates do not automatically apply.

14. Promotional packs, subsets, and products with fixed contents

The promotional appendix below covers other pack families and the exceptions most likely to confuse a thirty-year checklist. POP and McDonald’s releases are already individual rows in the directory. Play! Pokémon Prize Packs, Trick or Trade, General Mills promotions, and First Partner Illustration packs have separate identities and distributions. This appendix is a family guide, not an assertion that every regional event wrapper and sample giveaway has been cataloged.

Promotional series are not all the same format. A Play! logo, pumpkin stamp, cereal promotion, or special holo pattern can define an exact printing. McDonald’s releases also differ by country and campaign year. A catalog’s year label is not evidence of a simultaneous worldwide release. The twelve catalog years in the directory should be read as English campaign records.

Fixed card products belong in a different calculation. Southern Islands, Pokémon Rumble, Trainer Kits, My First Battle, and the 2021 First Partner jumbo collections contain predetermined card selections, with some products also including ordinary expansion boosters. A known included card is a content fact, not a lucky pull. Only the ordinary boosters contribute a chance at cards from their own expansion pools.

POP Series 1–9

All nine series appear individually in the directory (2004–2009).

Organized-play distribution; separate card pools. Set-specific sheet models appear in the directory; separate holo promotional versions are excluded.

Source / exact identity

McDonald’s collections

English catalog campaigns: 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024.

Individual directory rows use catalog year labels. The 2024 collection is Dragon Discovery, released in the US in January 2025. Local campaigns, pack contents, and foil treatments need exact regional identification.

Source / exact identity

Play! Pokémon Prize Packs

Series One, Two, Three, Four, Five, Six, Seven, Eight, Nine.

Stamped organized-play reprints. Series Eight started January 1, 2026; Series Nine started July 1, 2026. Retail expansion odds do not apply.

Source / exact identity

Trick or Trade BOOster packs

Cataloged English editions: 2022, 2023, 2024.

Pumpkin-stamped cards in a mini-pack format. Campaign availability does not by itself establish a new card set; Verify the card pool when packs are redistributed in a later campaign.

Source / exact identity

General Mills promotional packs

Catalog identities include Kanto, Sun & Moon, and the 25th Anniversary promotion.

Cereal-promotion card pools and variants; independent of standard retail booster odds. These family labels are not a global inventory of every cereal campaign.

Source / exact identity

First Partner Illustration Collection

2026 Series 1, Series 2, Series 3 special packs.

Special illustration selections distributed in collection products. Keep the special pack separate from the ordinary expansion boosters also inside the product. Specific selection odds unknown.

Source / exact identity

Poké Card Creator Pack and sample giveaways

Poké Card Creator Pack (2004), demonstration and promotional sample pack families.

Distinct promotional distribution. Verify contents and regional identity before assigning a random-card model. Not counted as regular retail expansions.

Source / exact identity

Three-card mini packs and dollar-store formats

Reduced-content versions of some expansion packs.

A standard booster’s rare-slot or SIR study cannot be transferred to a mini pack. Packaging edition and contents must be checked separately.

Source / exact identity

Fixed selections and jumbo products

Southern Islands, Trainer Kits, Pokémon Rumble, My First Battle, 2021 First Partner jumbo collections.

Predetermined card selections are not random chase odds. Any ordinary expansion boosters included with them retain their own set identity.

Source / exact identity

Anniversary Classic Collection

Celebrations (2021) and 30th Celebration (2026) have separate Classic Collection pools.

Classic cards found in parent expansion packs are subsets. Separately announced 30th Classic packs for later products must not inherit the parent expansion’s odds or be counted as already released before this guide’s cutoff.

Source / exact identity

15. When buying the single answers the question better

The budget comparison above ranks whole compatible packs by the modeled chance of one exact target: 1 − (1 − p)^floor(budget / pack price). Prices and budgets are rounded to cents and unspent money is shown. Sold guides may include reported shipping; checkout taxes and shipping vary and are not separately added. The default restricts the comparison to SIR opening studies. Broader comparisons mix different cards and evidence types, so each row keeps its source and uncertainty. Rankings use point estimates and can change when uncertainty ranges overlap.

If the goal is owning one exact card, compare that single’s current price with the amount you are comfortable spending for a chance. A cheap pack with a tiny target probability can be an expensive route to the card. A cost-per-average-hit calculation is useful for showing scale, but it does not price the entertainment, other cards, or sealed collectible you give up by opening.

Expected resale value would require the entire pack outcome distribution, card-specific prices by condition, fees, shipping, and realistic liquidity. A chase probability multiplied by one headline card price is not a complete expected-value model. A highly priced card with thin sales evidence does not make every pack worth that amount.

Use CollectAIO to keep the comparison on exact identities: inspect the linked pack edition, the exact single and its variants, the evidence basis, and sold-comparable evidence. Save the items you care about to a collection or watchlist. The platform gives the comparison somewhere to live as prices change; the webpage follows current catalog guides while CSV snapshots remain dated so they can be audited.

16. Sources, coverage, and how to read uncertainty

Pack catalog identities and stored images were checked October 7, 2026; chase evidence was reviewed October 5, 2026. Each named target links its exact English raw variant. Every pack price preserves its underlying source date and evidence basis; older or unverified sold evidence is labeled. Each directory row links the original study or set-specific sheet reconstruction. Modern estimates come from TCGplayer, Cardzard, independently collected breaker data, and DigitalTQ. The latter includes small mixed-source samples, which are labeled and should not be treated as established print-run probabilities.

Vintage probabilities are conditional reconstructions from EFour’s English Pokémon Card Rarity Guide: the insertion rate of a sheet multiplied by the number of copies of the target divided by the sheet’s positions. Unequal print-sheet counts matter. If the source cannot assign the target’s exact count, we preserve the class range. These bounds are model assumptions, not statistical confidence intervals.

For estimates derived from an observed rarity rate, we divide only by the cards eligible in that English pack, under an explicit equal-population assumption. Black Bolt and White Flare have separate seven-card SIR pools; dividing a pooled two-set rate by all fourteen cards would understate a target’s modeled chance. A missing interval is never manufactured.

A study can differ from a later print run. Selection of boxes, loose packs, weighted vintage packs, breaker inventory, and small samples can change what is observed. The source links, sample sizes, card numbers, formulas, and limitations remain attached to the estimates in the table and CSV.

  1. 1.TCGdex English physical set catalog and per-set release records
  2. 2.TCGdex set-data definitions
  3. 3.CollectAIO English checklist catalog
  4. 4.Pokémon: 30th Celebration release announcement
  5. 5.Pokémon: 30th Celebration product showcase and pack contents
  6. 6.Pokémon: Mysterious Treasures expansion and pack contents
  7. 7.Pokémon: Black & White expansion
  8. 8.Pokémon: XY Evolutions expansion
  9. 9.Pokémon: Shining Legends expansion
  10. 10.Base Set: Sheet model and assumptions
  11. 11.Jungle: Sheet model and assumptions
  12. 12.Fossil: Sheet model and assumptions
  13. 13.Base Set 2: Sheet model and assumptions
  14. 14.Team Rocket: Sheet model and assumptions
  15. 15.Gym Heroes: Sheet model and assumptions
  16. 16.Gym Challenge: Sheet model and assumptions
  17. 17.Neo Genesis: Sheet model and assumptions
  18. 18.Neo Discovery: Sheet model and assumptions
  19. 19.Neo Revelation: Sheet model and assumptions
  20. 20.Neo Destiny: Sheet model and assumptions
  21. 21.Legendary Collection: Sheet model and assumptions
  22. 22.Expedition Base Set: Sheet model and assumptions
  23. 23.Aquapolis: Sheet model and assumptions
  24. 24.Skyridge: Sheet model and assumptions
  25. 25.Ruby & Sapphire: Sheet model and assumptions
  26. 26.Sandstorm: Sheet model and assumptions
  27. 27.Dragon: Sheet model and assumptions
  28. 28.Team Magma vs Team Aqua: Sheet model and assumptions
  29. 29.Hidden Legends: Sheet model and assumptions
  30. 30.FireRed & LeafGreen: Sheet model and assumptions
  31. 31.Team Rocket Returns: Sheet model and assumptions
  32. 32.Deoxys: Sheet model and assumptions
  33. 33.Emerald: Sheet model and assumptions
  34. 34.Unseen Forces: Sheet model and assumptions
  35. 35.Delta Species: Sheet model and assumptions
  36. 36.Legend Maker: Sheet model and assumptions
  37. 37.Holon Phantoms: Sheet model and assumptions
  38. 38.Crystal Guardians: Sheet model and assumptions
  39. 39.Dragon Frontiers: Sheet model and assumptions
  40. 40.Power Keepers: Sheet model and assumptions
  41. 41.Diamond & Pearl: Sheet model and assumptions
  42. 42.Mysterious Treasures: Sheet model and assumptions
  43. 43.Secret Wonders: Sheet model and assumptions
  44. 44.Great Encounters: Sheet model and assumptions
  45. 45.Majestic Dawn: Sheet model and assumptions
  46. 46.Legends Awakened: Sheet model and assumptions
  47. 47.Stormfront: Sheet model and assumptions
  48. 48.Platinum: Sheet model and assumptions
  49. 49.Rising Rivals: Sheet model and assumptions
  50. 50.Supreme Victors: Sheet model and assumptions
  51. 51.Arceus: Sheet model and assumptions
  52. 52.HeartGold SoulSilver: Sheet model and assumptions
  53. 53.Unleashed: Sheet model and assumptions
  54. 54.Undaunted: Sheet model and assumptions
  55. 55.Triumphant: Sheet model and assumptions
  56. 56.Call of Legends: Sheet model and assumptions
  57. 57.Black & White: Sheet model and assumptions
  58. 58.Emerging Powers: Sheet model and assumptions
  59. 59.Noble Victories: Sheet model and assumptions
  60. 60.Next Destinies: Sheet model and assumptions
  61. 61.Dark Explorers: Sheet model and assumptions
  62. 62.Dragons Exalted: Sheet model and assumptions
  63. 63.Dragon Vault: Sheet model and assumptions
  64. 64.Boundaries Crossed: Sheet model and assumptions
  65. 65.Plasma Storm: Sheet model and assumptions
  66. 66.Plasma Freeze: Sheet model and assumptions
  67. 67.Plasma Blast: Sheet model and assumptions
  68. 68.Legendary Treasures: Sheet model and assumptions
  69. 69.XY: Sheet model and assumptions
  70. 70.Flashfire: Sheet model and assumptions
  71. 71.Furious Fists: Sheet model and assumptions
  72. 72.Phantom Forces: Sheet model and assumptions
  73. 73.Primal Clash: Sheet model and assumptions
  74. 74.Double Crisis: Sheet model and assumptions
  75. 75.Roaring Skies: Sheet model and assumptions
  76. 76.Ancient Origins: Sheet model and assumptions
  77. 77.BREAKthrough: Sheet model and assumptions
  78. 78.BREAKpoint: Sheet model and assumptions
  79. 79.Generations: Sheet model and assumptions
  80. 80.Fates Collide: Sheet model and assumptions
  81. 81.Steam Siege: Sheet model and assumptions
  82. 82.Evolutions: Sheet model and assumptions
  83. 83.POP Series 1: Sheet model and assumptions
  84. 84.POP Series 2: Sheet model and assumptions
  85. 85.POP Series 3: Sheet model and assumptions
  86. 86.POP Series 4: Sheet model and assumptions
  87. 87.POP Series 5: Sheet model and assumptions
  88. 88.POP Series 6: Sheet model and assumptions
  89. 89.POP Series 7: Sheet model and assumptions
  90. 90.POP Series 8: Sheet model and assumptions
  91. 91.POP Series 9: Sheet model and assumptions
  92. 92.Sun & Moon: Sheet model and assumptions
  93. 93.Guardians Rising: Sheet model and assumptions
  94. 94.Burning Shadows: Sheet model and assumptions
  95. 95.Crimson Invasion: Sheet model and assumptions
  96. 96.Ultra Prism: Sheet model and assumptions
  97. 97.Forbidden Light: Sheet model and assumptions
  98. 98.Celestial Storm: Sheet model and assumptions
  99. 99.Dragon Majesty: Sheet model and assumptions
  100. 100.Lost Thunder: Sheet model and assumptions
  101. 101.Team Up: Sheet model and assumptions
  102. 102.Detective Pikachu: Sheet model and assumptions
  103. 103.Unbroken Bonds: Sheet model and assumptions
  104. 104.Unified Minds: Sheet model and assumptions
  105. 105.Cosmic Eclipse: Sheet model and assumptions
  106. 106.Sword & Shield: Sheet model and assumptions
  107. 107.30th Celebration: Opening study and assumptions
  108. 108.Ascended Heroes: Opening study and assumptions
  109. 109.Astral Radiance: Opening study and assumptions
  110. 110.White Flare: Pooled model and assumptions
  111. 111.Chaos Rising: Opening study and assumptions
  112. 112.Crown Zenith: Opening study and assumptions
  113. 113.Destined Rivals: Opening study and assumptions
  114. 114.Evolving Skies: Opening study and assumptions
  115. 115.Journey Together: Opening study and assumptions
  116. 116.Lost Origin: Opening study and assumptions
  117. 117.Mega Evolution: Opening study and assumptions
  118. 118.Obsidian Flames: Opening study and assumptions
  119. 119.Paldea Evolved: Opening study and assumptions
  120. 120.Paldean Fates: Opening study and assumptions
  121. 121.Paradox Rift: Opening study and assumptions
  122. 122.Perfect Order: Opening study and assumptions
  123. 123.Phantasmal Flames: Opening study and assumptions
  124. 124.Pitch Black: Opening study and assumptions
  125. 125.Prismatic Evolutions: Opening study and assumptions
  126. 126.151: Opening study and assumptions
  127. 127.Scarlet & Violet: Opening study and assumptions
  128. 128.Silver Tempest: Opening study and assumptions
  129. 129.Stellar Crown: Opening study and assumptions
  130. 130.Surging Sparks: Opening study and assumptions
  131. 131.Temporal Forces: Opening study and assumptions
  132. 132.Twilight Masquerade: Opening study and assumptions
  133. 133.Champion's Path: Opening study and assumptions
  134. 134.Chilling Reign: Opening model and assumptions
  135. 135.Brilliant Stars: Observed sample and assumptions
  136. 136.Pokémon GO: Observed sample and assumptions
  137. 137.Celebrations: Observed sample and assumptions
  138. 138.Vivid Voltage: Observed sample and assumptions
  139. 139.Shining Fates: Opening study and assumptions
  140. 140.Battle Styles: Opening study and assumptions
  141. 141.Fusion Strike: Opening study and assumptions
  142. 142.Shrouded Fable: Opening model and assumptions

17. Frequently asked questions

Which Pokémon packs give the best chase chance for my budget?

Use the budget comparison to rank the modeled chance of one exact card within your budget, counting whole packs and preserving the exact printing. It shows the raw single guide value for comparison. The order depends on dated pack prices and uncertain pull estimates; overlapping intervals can change the ranking. This is not a full-pack expected resale value or profit ranking, and a guide value is not an available purchase offer.

Does this cover all Pokémon packs worldwide?

It covers every English physical expansion and special set in the cited catalog through October 3, 2026, plus individual POP and McDonald’s releases and a promotional-family appendix. Japanese history is included, but a complete Japanese, regional-language, wrapper-art, and retailer-product inventory is outside this directory.

Are Pokémon pull rates official or guaranteed?

The estimates come from opening studies by TCGplayer and Cardzard, small observed samples, independently collected breaker data, and set-specific community sheet reconstructions. Each source type, sample, and assumption is labeled. They are not manufacturer guarantees, and cannot be transferred to another language, set, or pack format.

Why are some prices and promotional chase odds unknown?

A complete set list does not establish every price or pull probability. Chase estimates now cover every expansion in this guide, but promotional odds, missing prices, and unobserved RGB or BWR cards remain unknown when the evidence cannot support a number. Zero observed copies does not mean a zero chance.

Does one in 960 mean I will pull Pikachu after 960 packs?

No. It is rounded source shorthand for an estimated average rate. Each eligible pack remains a chance. The calculator uses the published percentage and shows the probability of at least one card, including the possibility of pulling none.

Are the directory prices current selling prices?

They are current CollectAIO USD catalog guides with separate price-source and sold-check dates. A TCGplayer market guide or asking-price guide does not establish a completed sale. Refreshing listings does not guarantee a supported price. Follow the exact item link to check current evidence, edition, condition, shipping, and taxes.

Are Shiny Vault and Trainer Gallery separate booster packs?

They are subsets opened through their parent expansion packs. Hidden Fates Shiny Vault, Shining Fates Shiny Vault, the four Sword & Shield Trainer Galleries, and Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery are not counted as additional retail expansions.

Can I use these estimates to calculate guaranteed profit?

No. A pull probability is not a profit estimate. A full expected-value model would need all possible outcomes and realistic card values, condition, fees, shipping, and liquidity. The calculator only models a chance at an exact card or defined rarity.

How are vintage Pokémon chase odds calculated?

A labeled sheet model multiplies the eligible sheet’s pack insertion rate by the target’s copies divided by the number of sheet positions. Repeated cards can have different probabilities even within one rarity. If the exact count is unresolved, this guide displays a model range. These are community reconstructions, not official manufacturer odds or confidence intervals.

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